I've wondered for a while whether there is any evidence that we can predict the success of a change based on the organisation's readiness for the change - else why would we bother with worrying about readiness? As always, loads of researchers have not only been worrying about this issue, they have also been investigating it. I found numerous papers, however, one captured my interest - probably because of the rational and detailed way in which the research was conducted. The conclusion as I figure it, is that it all depends on the biases (or not) in the readiness instrument.
You can read this paper here.