The fallacy of the tipping point

A few years ago I had my own epiphany when debating with someone the value of the concept of the "tipping point" when applied to social change processes.

Most of the research literature as well as the populist books subscribe to the notion that when you get the write idea and it tweaks opinion leaders and the target population, then it will spread automatically once it has reached its tipping point which can be anywhere from 15 - 30% of the total population.

All well and good though this research is descriptive; namely it describes something that has happened. It is not inherently predictive. Many people have written books and articles with their ideas on how to take the descriptive lessons and apply then predictively. However, there are very few longitudinal studies which chekc these implemented efforts with what actually happens.

If you do want a predictive method then there have been a number of formula around for 70 or so years all of which can be used to guide you in your implementation efforts.

Another fundamental issue is the tipping point usually refers to transformational innovation. It is when something quite new and novel gets adopted by others. It has little or no relevance for communities where incremental improvement is underway. Some studies make a point of assuming that innovation is the same as improvement, and they can thus include all innovation spread and adoption research into their models and theories. However, I beg to differ. Anyone who has a strategy of incremental improvement I suggests avoids using the tipping point as a planning tool.

I've written before about the concept of opinion leadership and my ambivalence about it (see earlier blog posts). The tipping point is fairly well predicated on the theory of opinion leaders yet there is much research to demonstrate the wekness in this model.

Yes, you may see many charts showing what looks like an S-curve in the adoption of an idea. However, my first question is to ask what was the total population, namely to how many peopel did you intend this idea to spread? ONce you have the total population you will most likely notice that what you are seeing as an S-curve may not be much mroe than the variation you might get in the early phases of adoption.

Next time I read a strategy and implementation plan that says something like "Once 25% of the population has adopted the change the rest will pick it up" I will continue to be sceptical.

Use blogs to develop communities of practice

Use blogs to help knowledge flow and communities of practice to develop One of the great ways to reduce email is to use collaborative systems that enable project teams to work together, to share all their files and choose how they wish to remain in contact.

Dave Snowden has written an article in KMWorld about how blogging can help communities of practice as well as this use of virtual teaming. His perspective is how these methods can help knowledge flow around an organisation and how communities of practice can develop, thus embedding knowledge and helping sharing.He has a number of tips of how blogging can be used http://www.kmworld.com/Articles/News/News-Analysis/%3CI%3EEverything-is-fragmented%3C-I%3E%E2%80%94Building-CoPs-for-knowledge-flow--49849.aspx

Synchronous learning is important for large scale change

I've always felt that the paradigm of learning, how we learn, the fact we have different styles etc., is a crucial theme for spreading good practice across systems, in large scale transformational change.

Some of us like to learn through theoretical experiences whilst other of us prefer a more interactice and discussive type process. There's an interesting article in "Chief Learning Officer" which I think closely relates to the problems we grapple with in healthcare in scaling up change across lots of people and organisations.

The article looks at the difference between synchronous (do together, discuss, meet, talk) and asynchronous (email, read alone) activities. It looks at how the learning process is effectively part of the outcome of any change.

I'll not repeat the article; have a look here for the whole thing -
http://www.clomedia.com/features/2008/July/2276/index.php?pt=a&aid=2276&start=0&page=1

Learning is part of knowledge management

There's a good article in Harvard Business Review 08/08 Vol.36 No. 8 P.60 by Amy Edmondson, entitled "The competitive imperative of learning".

This article is about the global trend to move away from a product based organisations to those that are more knowledge based - that is where the value is now. A process called EAL - execution-as-learning is introduced as a means to support the organisational learning and knowledge management process.

I like this framework because it is action orientated (good for healthcare) and shows how competitiveness can be managed, challenged and leveraged, though collaborative tools. This sounds a bit like an oxymoron. My view is that competitiveness might be the overarching strategy but it is delivered, at the action level, by collaborative working, including the use of systems and tools to enable this. There is also an emphasis on evaluation and feedback as essential parts of the learning process.

Mapping spread / adoption across geography

A key part of any spread and adoption sptrategy is the ability to map who is adopting the good idea or better practice. Location is a major factor. Are these people close to one another or separated? What might be the factors meaning there is significant adoption on one part of the Region or Country and not in another? How can we visually note the patterns?

I use http://www.mapbuilder.net/ as a tool for mapping adoption. It is flexible and helps me see who is where and what the patterns might be. It is based on Google Maps (check out the terms and conditions so you understand how it can best be used).

Groundswell; social media works

I couldn't help but do some cross pollinating for once (or is it cross blogginating). I've just read and reviewed "Groundswell" by Li & Bernoff.

The book is about how people use social media to buck the trend of how they get information - namely using technology rather than the traditional methods from traditional instititions. This has significant implications for how we go about encouraging the spread of good practice.

Read the book review and get more infomration at www.mybookblurb.blogspot.com